The hottest new cutting season is coming, and Tian

2022-10-19
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The new cutting season is coming, Tianjiao seeks a reasonable price

in the first quarter and the first quarter, the price of rubber at home and abroad fluctuated sharply, and Japanese rubber and Shanghai Rubber repeatedly showed hedging opportunities

the figure shows the comparative trend of Shanghai rubber and Japanese rubber. (image source: Galaxy futures)

the figure shows the trend of the price difference between domestic and foreign futures. (picture source: Galaxy futures)

the trend of rubber fluctuated violently in the first quarter. In January, the domestic and foreign rubber markets continued to set a new high in 2010. The Shanghai rubber price stood at 43000 yuan/ton, and the Japanese rubber price stood at 540 yen/kg. Both the two major rubber markets set a record high. In this rising process, the rising trend of Japanese rubber was significantly faster than that of Shanghai rubber, resulting in the price difference between the two hitting the top of 10000 yuan/ton, so as to ensure the operation performance of the equipment to play a more stable role, and there was an arbitrage opportunity to sell Japanese rubber and buy Shanghai Rubber in the market. In mid and late February, with the outbreak of the crisis in North Africa and the Middle East and the implementation of China's tightening policy, the price of Japanese and Shanghai Rubber fell, and the price difference between the two returned to the normal region. On March 11, an earthquake and tsunami occurred in Japan, causing the rijiao 08 contract and the Shanghai Jiao 1109 contract to plunge sharply from their short-term support of 400 yen/kg and 35000 yuan/ton, showing an oversold trend. At this time, because the decline of Japanese glue was much greater than that of Shanghai glue during this wave of decline, the market reappeared the opportunity of cross market arbitrage: buy Japanese glue and sell Shanghai glue. As the Japanese earthquake gradually subsided and the Japanese government injected a large amount of capital into the market, the Japanese glue showed a super iron rebound trend, and Shanghai glue also returned to the price of 35000 yuan/ton driven by the Japanese glue

II. The fundamentals of natural rubber have changed from strong to weak

(I) the main producing countries of natural rubber are facing new rubber tapping

the figure shows the trend of global monthly production. (image source: Galaxy futures)

from the monthly production distribution of the whole year, March and April of each year are the off-season of global rubber production. At the end of December, China's rubber production areas were basically cut. At the end of February, the harvesting of rubber in Thailand, Indonesia and other major producing countries in Southeast Asia also entered the off-season, so there is a natural off-season for the supply and output of natural rubber to support the rubber price. However, with the arrival at the end of March, the sample area is 25mm × 25mm × Since 2=1250mm2, the main rubber producing countries have successively entered the tapping period. First, cutting in Yunnan, China, in late March, followed by cutting in Hainan, China, in early April, in northern Thailand and Vietnam in mid April, and in southern Thailand, Malaysia and Northern Indonesia, the main rubber producing areas of Thailand, in late April and early May. The arrival of rubber cutting period will alleviate the tight situation of rubber supply in the market. According to the situation of rubber tapping in Southeast Asia in January and February 2011, the cost is high, and the rubber production will increase in 2011. The alliance of natural rubber producers announced that the output in 2011 will reach 10.17 million tons, an increase of 7.7% over 2010. In 2010, the output was 9.444 million tons, with an annual growth rate of 5.9%. Thailand and Indonesia, the largest supplier of natural rubber in Southeast Asia, will have a significant increase in production in 2011. Thailand's production in 2011 will reach 3.247 million tons, with an annual increase of 5.7%. Due to bad weather factors, Thailand's production in 2010 was 3.081 million tons, with an annual increase of -2.6%. In addition, rubber trees planted during the expansion of the rubber industry initiated by the government a few years ago began to produce latex. Due to the rapid rise in the price of natural rubber in the second half of 2010, local rubber farmers in Indonesia worked hard to cut rubber. According to the organization, the output of Indonesia in 2011 will be significantly increased to 3.08 million tons, exceeding the level of 3million tons for the first time, with an annual increase of 8.1%. At present, the production of natural rubber in 2011 is expected to be optimistic, so the market is full of hope for the new rubber production in the upcoming tapping season, and the listing of new rubber will have a great impact on the market

(II) the policies of major producing countries raised the bottom of the decline

the figure shows the trend of supply in Thailand's three major commodity markets. (image source: Galaxy futures)

the figure shows the price difference trend between Thai cigarette glue and standard glue. (picture source: Galaxy futures)

if the rubber price falls sharply, the attitude of the main rubber producing countries and the corresponding policies can not be ignored, which will directly affect the supply of the main rubber producing countries. Since February, 2011, affected by International Geopolitics, the suppression of China's tightening policies and the impact of the Japanese earthquake, Japanese rubber futures have fallen by 38%, Shanghai rubber futures have fallen by 25%, the spot price in Southeast Asia has also briefly fallen by 52% after the earthquake, and the price of Thai No. 3 cigarette glue has fallen to 89 baht/kg, far below Thailand's warning line of 120 baht/kg. Therefore, Thailand has urgently taken relevant measures, first of all, temporarily stopped exports, Secondly, we will hold a meeting with Malaysia and Indonesia to support the price of rubber. These measures have played an important role in the price of natural rubber. Judging from the rubber price of 120 baht/kg in Thailand, it is equivalent to about 32500 yuan/ton in RMB. Judging from the price difference between domestic rubber and Thai rubber, the normal price of domestic Shanghai rubber is about 30000 yuan/ton. Therefore, even if the peak season of rubber cutting is coming, the downward decline of Shanghai rubber will be supported by the policies of natural rubber producing countries, and will not fall for thousands of miles

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