The hottest new deal forced the photovoltaic indus

  • Detail

The new deal forced the photovoltaic industry to reduce costs as soon as possible in the second half of next year "at parity"

in recent years, the state has adjusted electricity price policies for many times. Tongwei shares believes that the implementation of the photovoltaic "5 dot; 31 New Deal" objectively has a certain inhibitory effect on the use of ELG's recycled carbon fiber materials in China's new installed capacity demand in 2018. In the early 20th century, it began to use metallographic microscope to study the fatigue mechanism and benefit level. However, in the new industry environment, photovoltaic high-cost enterprises gradually withdraw, and the market share is gradually concentrated to advantageous enterprises. In the long run, the increasing share of clean energy in the world and China will not change, and the photovoltaic industry will be forced to reduce construction costs. It is expected to achieve a large area of "parity" as soon as the second half of 2019

on May 31, 2018, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the notice on matters related to photovoltaic power generation in 2018 (i.e. "5 dot; 31 New Deal"), which pointed out that the electricity price on the benchmark of newly put into operation photovoltaic power stations was reduced by 0.05 yuan per kWh. Except for the power stations that were merged before May 31, the construction scale of ordinary photovoltaic power stations in 2018 will not be arranged temporarily. The subsidized distributed photovoltaic index has no limit from the past. This time, it is tightened to only 10GW index for the whole year

in the industry, "5 dot; 31 New Deal" is known as "the most stringent photovoltaic policy in history". This policy has directly accelerated the decline of subsidies in the photovoltaic industry. The days of photovoltaic enterprises living on subsidies are expected to be gone forever. Many photovoltaic enterprises plan to lay off staff and reduce production

in 2018, China's domestic demand for new PV installations will face certain adjustments by putting the tested workpieces on the workbench, but Tongwei believes that with the increase in overseas market demand, the global demand for new PV installations in 2018 will decline by a limited margin

relevant person of Tongwei shares told the securities times dot; E company, in southern Europe, India and other regions with excellent sunshine resources, photovoltaic power generation has a good economy. The price decline of photovoltaic products brought about by the implementation of the new deal has further stimulated the release of overseas market demand. From January to may 2018, China's total exports of battery chips and components amounted to US $5.513 billion, an increase of 21.24% year-on-year; The export volume of components is about 16-17gw, with a year-on-year increase of more than 30%

according to the requirements of the "5 dot; 31 New Deal", the construction scale of ordinary photovoltaic power stations in 2018 will not be arranged temporarily, and a distributed construction scale of about 10GW will be arranged

affected by multiple factors such as the adjustment of electricity price, the scale of photovoltaic power generation market expanded rapidly in 2017, and the new installed capacity expanded to 53.06gw. By the end of 2017, China's cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity had exceeded 130gw, continuing to rank first in the world; According to the data of the national energy administration, in 2018, the newly installed capacity of PV was 24.30gw

according to the data of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the new installed capacity in 2018 will fall to the level of 30-45gw, a certain decline from 53.06gw in 2017, and the new installed capacity is still at a high level

according to the requirements of the new deal, the electricity price on the benchmark in each resource area and the electricity price on distributed projects will be reduced by 0.05 yuan respectively, and the photovoltaic power generation projects merged after June 30 will be implemented according to the new electricity price standard. In this regard, Tongwei shares admitted that without considering changes in investment costs, the yield level of photovoltaic power station projects under construction will decline after June 30

Tongwei shares believes that under the conduction of the "5 dot; 31 New Deal" effect, the product prices of photovoltaic links have declined by varying degrees, so as to make up for the impact of the price reduction on the yield level of power station projects to a certain extent. Affected by the decline in product prices, high-cost manufacturing enterprises in the industry can no longer cover their production costs by continuing production, and now they have announced production cuts or shutdowns of production capacity of different scales

according to incomplete statistics, at present, the shutdown rate of each manufacturing link ranges from 30% to 40%. With the withdrawal of relevant high-cost production capacity, the imbalance between supply and demand in the short-term market will be alleviated to a certain extent. The product prices of various manufacturing links have gradually stabilized since July 2018, and the polysilicon prices have risen slightly recently

however, according to the report of CITIC Xindian team, since the new photovoltaic policy, domestic photovoltaic demand has fallen precipitously, the prices of silicon materials and other products have fallen rapidly, and the industry has entered a new round of reshuffle. According to the research of CITIC Xindian, the overall operating rate of silicon material has fallen to about 60%, the domestic backward production capacity has been cleared rapidly, and the import market share has shrunk. Recently, the price of silicon material has reached the bottom and stabilized periodically, and the average price of dense material has stabilized at more than 95000 yuan/ton

on July 26 this year, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association organized a seminar. Wang Weiwei, director of the Electronics Department of the Ministry of industry and information technology, pointed out in his speech that the determination of the central government to support the development of China's photovoltaic industry has not changed. Photovoltaic enterprises should improve their internal skills. The Ministry of industry and information technology will improve the photovoltaic regulatory conditions in the near future and promote the survival of the fittest

before the implementation of the new deal, the industry generally predicted that around 2020, photovoltaic power generation is expected to achieve "parity", and the prices of products in all links will gradually decline

Yan Hu, vice chairman of Tongwei shares, told the securities times dot; E company, based on this expectation, the advantageous enterprises in the domestic photovoltaic industry will make layout in advance, continuously optimize the existing production capacity or build new low-cost production capacity. It is expected that a large area of "46mm average length price" will gradually appear in the second half of next year

Tongwei shares believes that in the long run, this will help further purify the market environment, tilt the market share to leading enterprises, and further consolidate the market position and competitiveness of advantageous production capacity. According to the requirements of the new deal, the State encourages all regions to arrange various photovoltaic power generation projects that do not need state subsidies according to the acceptance conditions and relevant requirements

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI